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Home > Investors > Financial Reporting > Key Earnings Sensitivities 
Financial Reporting
Key Earnings Sensitivities

February 20, 2008 (except where otherwise noted)

The information in the key earnings sensitivities section of our website is reproduced from the company's Financial Review Annual Report for 2007 and speaks solely as of February 20, 2008. The company has not updated or revised the information as a result of new information, events or otherwise, and the reproduction of this information on the company's website should in no way be read as a confirmation that the information as of February 20, 2008 remains accurate.

 

A number of factors affect the earnings of the company's three nutrient segments. The table below shows the key factors and their approximate effect on EPS based on the assumptions used in the 2008 earnings guidance provided January 24, 2008 of $6.25 to $7.25 per share.

Input Cost Sensitivities Effect on EPS
NYMEX gas price
increases by
$1/MMBtu
Nitrogen
Potash
+ 0.03
– 0.02
Sulfur changes by
$20/long ton
Phosphate ± 0.09
Canadian to US dollar strengthens by $0.01 Canadian operating
expenses net of
provincial taxes
– 0.015
 
(as at March 31, 2008) Translation gain/loss – 0.015
Price and Volume Sensitivities Effect on EPS
Price Potash changes by $20/tonne ± 0.34
DAP/MAP changes by $20/tonne ± 0.06
Ammonia increases by $20/tonne  
  • Nitrogen
+ 0.04
  • Phosphate
– 0.01
Urea changes by $20/tonne ± 0.05
Volume Potash changes by 100,000 tonnes ± 0.05
Nitrogen changes by 50,000 N tonnes – 0.03
Phosphate changes by 50,000 P2O5 tonnes – 0.05
The above sensitivities affect cash flow as well, except the translation gain/loss which is primarily non-cash.
Indicators to Watch in 2008
Fertilizer
  • Weather and global acreage planted
  • Ethanol and biodiesel developments
  • US corn acres
  • US dollar exchange rates with global currencies
  • Global crop prices
  • Ocean freight rates
  • Prices for natural gas, ammonia and sulfur
  • EU and US nitrogen curtailments
  • Brazil's weather, soybean prices, credit policy, soybean acres planted
  • China's agricultural taxes, subsidies, corn exports, soybean imports
  • China's policy on exporting phosphate rock, DAP/MAP and urea
  • India's subsidy policy
  • India's urea and DAP production levels
  • US progress on new Farm Bill
  • Project capital costs
  • New capital project announcements
Feed and Industrial
  • Health of US and world economies
  • Effect of livestock-based disease restrictions on world trade, e.g. avian flu, foot and mouth disease
  • Potential tightening of restrictions on the use of meat and bone meal in animal feeds
  • Impact of residual grain from ethanol production on US feed phosphate consumption
  • Consumer spending, housing starts, household improvements, and vehicle production and sales

This document contains forward-looking statements. These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions as set forth in this document/release, including foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, businesses prospects and opportunities and effective income tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: fluctuations in supply and demand in fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; the results of negotiations with China and India; timing and amount of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company's investments; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflow; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changes in, and the effects of, government policy and regulations; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007 under the captions "Forward-Looking Statements" and "Item 1A - Risk Factors" and in filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this document/release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.