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Potash: SWOT

STRENGTHS
  • Capability to substantially raise capacity in less time than and at a significant discount to comparable greenfield capacity
  • Low-cost, flexible production, with a small percentage of fixed costs
  • Declining per-tonne production costs and mining taxes with expanded volumes
  • Long reserve lives from existing mine shafts
  • Offshore potash-related investments add considerably to overall profitability
  • Substantial barriers to entry, with high capital costs and long lead times
  • Few world producers, little government ownership
  • No substitutable products for potash
WEAKNESSES
  • High rail and ocean freight delivery costs for Saskatchewan potash, potential for bottlenecks
  • Water inflows at New Brunswick and Esterhazy increase production costs there and risk loss of production
  • Production costs exposed to Canadian dollar volatility
  • High Saskatchewan resource taxes and federal and provincial income taxes, relative to global competitors
OPPORTUNITIES
  • Global food story, complemented by biofuels, is accelerating long-term growth expectations for potash consumption
  • With competitors at or near maximum operating rates and limited expansion potential, planned capacity additions should enable PotashCorp to increase our percentage participation in a growing market
THREATS
  • Potash demand growth could exceed company's logistical capability to deliver in the short term
  • Demand can be temporarily affected by changes in consumption patterns in offshore markets
  • Substantial upward pricing trend may attract greenfield projects
  • PotashCorp would be disproportionately affected by market weakness, particularly in the short term