Phosphate - Essential to Food Production
Phosphate is a non-renewable resource that is required for all biological systems. Given the rising growth projections for feed and food, crops, and livestock, will there be enough phosphate to meet nutrient demands in coming years?
There are no substitutes for phosphate. There is only so much of it naturally occurring in economically recoverable quantities in the earth's crust. Variously dispersed around the world, at the present rate of use for industrial, feed, and fertilizers, it is estimated that there is a 150-year supply, according to the PotashCorp Market Research Department and British Sulphur. Additional phosphate beyond this date will cost substantially more to develop and process.
Meanwhile, agricultural growth projections are putting even more pressure on the demand for phosphate. The recent growth projection for crops used in the production of feed and food has been 2 percent per year. Add to this the increasing demand for ethanol from corn and biodiesel from soybeans and projections reach 3 percent per year. The agriculture, animal production and energy sectors will all be putting heavy pressure on demand for both crops and phosphate nutrients.
What is the solution? Like many complex problems, there is no single answer. The trick will be to satisfy the rising, intertwined demand for grain and phosphate.
On the grain side, production obviously will have to increase. Countries that consume grains and have land to produce in excess of their own requirements are Argentina, Brazil, the United States, and those in Central Europe. They will need accelerated adoption of technologies such as GMO crops, precision fertilization and other best practices for nutrient use, biodegradable herbicides, pesticides and increased production of high-quality protein and fat sources from meat, milk, and eggs. These will help us keep pace with increasing feed and food production requirements.
At the same time, however, corn-based ethanol and soy-based biodiesel production will compete for these grain supplies. In the area of animal feed, a portion of the grain used for ethanol will make its way back into animal nutrition. It is estimated that globally 20 million tons of feed corn consumption will be displaced via ethanol by-product dried distillers grains solubles (DDGS) by 2010 (Feed Mix Vol. 14, No. 5, 2006, pages 19-21). However, this will not be enough to offset requirements for new feed demand based on a 2-percent growth projection. Therefore, importing countries will have to develop alternative non-grain strategies for producing meat protein, such as:
- Raising ruminant animals that can efficiently convert grasses, low-quality forages, and high-fiber crops that do not compete with human foods.
- Increasing use of new enzymes designed to make non-traditional biomass more digestible to monogastric animals.
Of course, with all of this, farming will become more complex, integrating animal/crop systems that produce and recycle feed, energy, and fertilizer.
If trend lines continue to rise as expected in demand for grain, renewable energy and phosphate, we will see numerous changes in efficiency and integration in agri-industry.
World Grain Production and Consumption
Grain production has been unable to keep pace with consumption, which outstripped production in six of the last seven years.
Source: USDA January 2007
Phosphate Rock Prices
Morocco 70% BPL
Phosphate rock prices rose in 2006 and are expected to continue climbing through 2008.
Source: Fertecon
World Compound Feed Production
World compound feed production has steadily increased, for the most part, over the past 10 years. During the late 1990s, a financial crisis in East Asia, which was felt globally, slowed production somewhat. Since then, compound feed production has been on the upswing.
Source: Feed International January 2006
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