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Key Earnings Sensitivities

A number of factors affect the earnings of the company’s three nutrient segments. The table below shows the key factors and their approximate effect on EPS based on the assumptions used in the 2009 earnings guidance of $10.00 to $12.00 per share.

Input Cost Sensitivities Effect on EPS
NYMEX gas price
increases by
$1/MMBtu		 Nitrogen + 0.07
Potash - 0.02
Sulfur changes by
$20/long ton		 Phosphate ± 0.07
Canadian to US dollar strengthens by $0.01 Canadian operating
expenses net of
provincial taxes		 - 0.01
Translation gain/loss - 0.02
Price and Volume Sensitivities Effect on EPS
Price Potash changes by $20/tonne ± 0.30
DAP/MAP changes by $20/tonne ± 0.05
Ammonia increases by $20/tonne  
  • Nitrogen
 + 0.06
  • Phosphate
 - 0.01
Urea changes by $20/tonne ± 0.06
Volume Potash changes by 100,000 tonnes ± 0.12
Nitrogen changes by 50,000 N tonnes ± 0.02
Phosphate changes by 50,000 P2O5 tonnes ± 0.08

The above sensitivities affect cash flow as well, except the translation gain/loss which is primarily non-cash.