Global Story

The world depends on modern agriculture, which makes it possible to feed a rising population and help people in developing nations enjoy better, protein-rich diets as their incomes increase. Agriculture can help improve energy self-reliance, maintain a healthy environment and sustain the parks, gardens, rainforests and open spaces that enrich our lives and protect the planet.

1. Rising Population Parallels Income Growth

World population grows by approximately 75 million every year, mostly in developing nations. Despite the financial turmoil in 2008, China, India and other major emerging nations are expected to continue to drive global GDP growth, which the International Monetary Fund predicts will average 3.6 percent annually over the next five years. This will give increased purchasing power to millions of people.

2. More and Better Food Is Wanted

Diets are changing around the world as people with rising incomes choose better-quality foods rich in protein. Grain-fed chicken, pork and beef are becoming more affordable in developing countries, and more meat is being produced and consumed there. Demand for fruits and vegetables is also rising, particularly in Asia, where they are displacing cereal crops. Substantially more fertilizer, especially potash, is needed to produce quality fruits and vegetables.

3. Arable Land per Capita Is Shrinking

As population rises, cities expand and industry and transportation infrastructure grow, farmland is being converted to other uses. By 2020, there are expected to be barely 0.2 hectares per person for animal and crop production – less than half what was available in 1950. Farmers must use proper fertility practices to produce enough food from this diminishing agricultural land base per capita.

4. Grain Stocks-to-Use Ratio Remains Below Average

Despite reduced grain buying in the second half of 2008 that left more in inventories, and a record grain harvest which met world demand for only the third time in a decade, stocks-to-use ratios remain near historical lows. Because of long-term population growth and rising consumer incomes, this is unlikely to change soon.

5. Strong Crop Prices Will Encourage Farmers

Although crop prices, like nearly all commodity prices, fell during the latter half of 2008 after setting records in the first half, they remain well above historical levels and approximately twice the levels of three years ago. The factors that drove up those prices – rising world demand, low stocks and competition for planted acreage – are expected to continue, giving farmers a strong incentive to increase production and motivating them to use proper fertilization.

6. Fertilizer Is Needed More than Ever, and It Pays

Record harvests like the one in 2008 pull vast amounts of crop nutrients from the soil, nutrients that must be replaced to feed the next crop. After years of under-applying fertilizer, especially potash, China, India, Brazil and other countries are beginning to improve their nutrient balance. Fertilizer typically generates a return of $3 for every $1 invested.